Red Sox at Reds
Last play · Trevor Story flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
BOS 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 CIN
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 6) — +51% Reds
6Eugenio Suárez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart scores.2–3
4Wilyer Abreu homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Willson Contreras scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






