Phillies at Rockies
Last play · Rafael Marchán strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies100%
PHI 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 4 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rockies favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Rumfield homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Hunter Goodman scores. (inning 1) — +16% Rockies
5Mickey Moniak homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–4
2Adolis García homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
1TJ Rumfield homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Hunter Goodman scores.0–3
1Mickey Moniak homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






