Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Willson Contreras grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
BOS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 4 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 3) — +17% Astros
8Jose Altuve homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–8
7Christian Walker doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Carlos Correa scores.1–7
7Jose Altuve homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–6
7Wilyer Abreu hits a ground-rule double (3) on a line drive to right field. Jarren Duran scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd.1–5
6Yainer Diaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Cam Smith scores.0–5
5Brice Matthews homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
3Yordan Alvarez homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jose Altuve scores.0–3
1Carlos Correa grounds into a double play, shortstop Trevor Story to second baseman Marcelo Mayer to first baseman Willson Contreras. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes out at 2nd. Carlos Correa out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






