Twins at Royals
Last play · Matt Wallner grounds out, second baseman Jonathan India to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Isbel homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jonathan India scores. (inning 2) — +25% Royals
7Isaac Collins homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
2Kyle Isbel homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jonathan India scores.1–2
2Matt Wallner homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






