Brewers at Royals
Last play · Joey Ortiz lines out to left fielder Isaac Collins.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIL 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 2 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Salvador Perez scores. Jonathan India scores. (inning 2) — +20% Royals
6Jared Koenig intentionally walks Salvador Perez.2–8
6Vinnie Pasquantino reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Jake Bauers. Kyle Isbel scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd. Bobby Witt Jr. to 2nd.2–7
6Maikel Garcia doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Isaac Collins scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd.2–6
6Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Carter Jensen scores. Isaac Collins to 2nd.2–5
6Isaac Collins singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Jonathan India scores. Carter Jensen to 2nd.2–4
6Salvador Perez homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
3Garrett Mitchell doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Brice Turang scores.2–2
3Brice Turang triples (1) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. David Hamilton scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






