Twins at Royals
Last play · Kyle Isbel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
MIN 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 0 KC
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Wallner homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 9) — -21% Twins
9Josh Bell homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–1
9Kody Clemens homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
9Matt Wallner homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.3–1
8Vinnie Pasquantino out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Matt Wallner. Maikel Garcia scores.2–1
8Byron Buxton out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 3rd.2–0
2Royce Lewis strikes out swinging.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






