Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Nick Loftin flies out to center fielder Brett Bateman.
Win probability
Royals0%
TOR 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 5 – 1 KC
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ernie Clement doubles (30) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Alejandro Kirk scores. Charles McAdoo scores. (inning 1) — -16% Blue Jays
9Vinnie Pasquantino homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.9–2
9Sean Keys homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.9–1
6George Springer doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Nathan Lukes scores. Brett Bateman scores.8–1
6Myles Straw out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Nolan Hoffman to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Ernie Clement scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd.6–1
2Alejandro Kirk doubles (7) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Myles Straw scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.5–1
1Bobby Witt Jr. homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
1Ernie Clement doubles (30) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Alejandro Kirk scores. Charles McAdoo scores.4–0
1Kazuma Okamoto singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






