Rays at Brewers
Last play · Blake Perkins grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Carson Williams. Sal Frelick out at 2nd.
Win probability
Brewers0%
TB 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 0 MIL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · William Contreras homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Brice Turang scores. (inning 6) — +34% Brewers
9Nick Fortes doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Jonny DeLuca scores.3–2
7Jonny DeLuca homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
6William Contreras homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Brice Turang scores.1–2
1Yandy Díaz homers (1) on a line drive to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






