Rays at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis pops out to second baseman Richie Palacios.
Win probability
Twins0%
TB 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 6 – 1 MIN
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Ben Williamson scores. Richie Palacios scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd. (inning 2) — -18% Rays
8Yandy Díaz triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder James Outman. Richie Palacios scores.7–1
5Hunter Feduccia singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Ben Williamson scores.6–1
5Ben Williamson singles on a ground ball to center fielder James Outman. Cedric Mullins scores.5–1
3Ben Williamson grounds into a double play, shortstop Brooks Lee to second baseman Luke Keaschall to first baseman Josh Bell. Cedric Mullins scores. Chandler Simpson out at 2nd. Ben Williamson out at 1st.4–1
2Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Matt Wallner scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Cedric Mullins.3–1
2Jonathan Aranda doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Ben Williamson scores. Richie Palacios scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.3–0
2Yandy Díaz hit by pitch. Chandler Simpson scores. Ben Williamson to 3rd. Richie Palacios to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






