Pirates at Mets
Last play · Luis Robert Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Bo Bichette scores. Jorge Polanco scores.
Win probability
Mets100%
PIT 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 0 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Robert Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Bo Bichette scores. Jorge Polanco scores. (inning 11) — +51% Mets
11Luis Robert Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Bo Bichette scores. Jorge Polanco scores.2–4
11Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to third baseman Bo Bichette. Jake Mangum scores.2–1
10Luis Torrens singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Brett Baty scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd. Jared Young to 2nd.1–1
10Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






