Pirates at Mets
PIT7–
NYM11Last play · Oneil Cruz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
PIT 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 9 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Juan Soto scores. Jorge Polanco scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +31% Mets
9Nick Gonzales doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jared Triolo scores.7–11
6Francisco Alvarez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.5–11
6Carson Benge homers (1) on a line drive to right center field.5–10
6Ryan O'Hearn homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.5–9
5Luis Robert Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto to 3rd. Jorge Polanco to 2nd.4–9
5Jorge Polanco walks. Francisco Alvarez scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd. Juan Soto to 2nd.4–8
5Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Carson Benge scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.4–7
5Henry Davis doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Nick Gonzales scores.4–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.