Pirates at Mets
Last play · Jorge Polanco flies out to right fielder Billy Cook.
Win probability
Mets0%
PIT 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 2 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 10) — -28% Pirates
10Mets challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mets challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Juan Soto doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Francisco Alvarez scores. Francisco Lindor out at home on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to shortstop Jared Triolo to catcher Henry Davis.4–3
10Henry Davis singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Billy Cook scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.4–2
10Ryan O'Hearn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores.3–2
5Juan Soto singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Francisco Lindor scores.2–2
3Brandon Lowe homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
2Marcus Semien out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Luis Robert Jr. scores.1–1
1Ryan O'Hearn singles on a fly ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Oneil Cruz scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






