Giants at Mets
Last play · Nate Furman grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Francisco Lindor. Grant McCray out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mets100%
SF 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 7 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 1) — +24% Mets
8Francisco Alvarez homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.6–10
8Rafael Devers homers (33) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Koss scores. Jonah Cox scores.6–9
7Turner Hill singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Jonah Cox scores. Bryce Eldridge to 2nd.3–9
6Francisco Lindor homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Jared Young scores.2–9
3Rafael Devers doubles (33) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nick Morabito. Christian Koss scores. Drew Gilbert scores.2–7
2Bo Bichette homers (15) on a line drive to left center field. Juan Soto scores.0–7
2Juan Soto grounds into a force out, first baseman Rafael Devers to shortstop Christian Koss. Nick Morabito scores. Francisco Lindor out at 2nd. Juan Soto to 1st.0–5
2Francisco Alvarez homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






