Marlins at Yankees
Last play · J.C. Escarra strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees0%
MIA 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 4 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+251 / -317
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Graham Pauley doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd. (inning 8) — -52% Marlins
9Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Cody Bellinger scores. Ben Rice scores.7–6
8Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Griffin Conine scores. Graham Pauley scores.7–4
8Graham Pauley doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.5–4
6Heriberto Hernández reaches on a throwing error by shortstop José Caballero. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.3–4
4Xavier Edwards doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Connor Norby scores.2–4
3Ben Rice reaches on a fielder's choice. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd. Ben Rice to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Connor Norby.1–4
1Ben Rice homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge scores.1–3
1Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Austin Slater scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






