Rangers at Phillies
Last play · Evan Carter grounds out to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Phillies100%
TEX 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 5 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Trea Turner scores. (inning 1) — +17% Phillies
9Danny Jansen singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Kyle Higashioka scores.3–5
9Jake Burger homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Corey Seager scores.2–5
5Alec Bohm homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner scores.0–5
1Kyle Schwarber homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Trea Turner scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






