Orioles at Pirates
Last play · Pete Alonso strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
BAL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 5 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Konnor Griffin doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ryan O'Hearn scores. (inning 2) — +10% Pirates
9Gunnar Henderson homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–5
7Taylor Ward doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Blaze Alexander scores.3–5
5Ryan O'Hearn out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–5
5Adley Rutschman doubles (4) on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Gunnar Henderson scores.2–4
5Gunnar Henderson doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Blaze Alexander scores.1–4
2Oneil Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Henry Davis scores.0–4
2Henry Davis doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Jared Triolo scores.0–3
2Jared Triolo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Konnor Griffin scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






