Orioles at Pirates
Last play · Dylan Beavers flies out to right fielder Billy Cook.
Win probability
Pirates100%
BAL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 6 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — +17% Pirates
7Jeremiah Jackson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Tyler O'Neill scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.2–8
6Oneil Cruz homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Mangum scores.1–8
4Pete Alonso doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Taylor Ward scores.1–6
2Ryan O'Hearn doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Oneil Cruz scores. Brandon Lowe scores.0–6
2Bryan Reynolds out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Jake Mangum scores.0–4
2Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp ground ball to catcher Samuel Basallo, deflected by pitcher Chris Bassitt. Spencer Horwitz scores. Henry Davis to 3rd. Jake Mangum to 2nd.0–3
1Ryan O'Hearn homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






