Tigers at Padres
Last play · Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
DET 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 1 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Gleyber Torres scores. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene to 3rd. (inning 8) — -39% Tigers
8Dillon Dingler singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Riley Greene scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.5–2
8Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Gleyber Torres scores. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene to 3rd.4–2
8Riley Greene singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Kerry Carpenter scores. Gleyber Torres to 3rd. Colt Keith to 2nd.2–2
6Ramón Laureano doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Jackson Merrill scores.1–2
6Spencer Torkelson singles on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Gleyber Torres scores.1–1
4Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to shortstop Javier Báez, deflected by third baseman Kevin McGonigle. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






