Giants at Padres
Last play · Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Casey Schmitt.
Win probability
Padres0%
SF 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 0 SD
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Harrison Bader homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — -18% Giants
9Jackson Merrill homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Cronenworth scores.3–2
4Casey Schmitt singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Patrick Bailey to 3rd.3–0
4Patrick Bailey singles on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Matt Chapman scores. Jung Hoo Lee to 2nd.2–0
3Harrison Bader homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






