Mets at Giants
Last play · Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
NYM 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 6 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Giants favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Heliot Ramos scores. (inning 1) — +14% Giants
6Rafael Devers homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–7
5Casey Schmitt singles on a line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Daniel Susac to 3rd.2–6
3Harrison Bader out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Luis Arraez scores.2–5
3Jung Hoo Lee out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Heliot Ramos scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.2–4
2Mark Vientos homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
1Jung Hoo Lee reaches on a missed catch error by pitcher David Peterson, assist to first baseman Mark Vientos. Matt Chapman scores.1–3
1Matt Chapman doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Luis Arraez scores.1–2
1Luis Arraez triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Heliot Ramos scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






