Guardians at Mariners
Last play · David Fry flies out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Win probability
Mariners100%
CLE 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 6 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brendan Donovan homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Cole Young scores. Leo Rivas scores. (inning 4) — +21% Mariners
8Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to left fielder CJ Kayfus. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor to 2nd.0–8
6Cal Raleigh hits a ground-rule double (1) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Brendan Donovan scores.0–7
5Luke Raley singles on a ground ball to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Randy Arozarena scores.0–6
5Randy Arozarena doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–5
4Brendan Donovan homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Cole Young scores. Leo Rivas scores.0–4
4Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Dominic Canzone scores. Cole Young to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






