Mets at Cardinals
Last play · Nathan Church strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
NYM 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 1 STL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto to 3rd. (inning 5) — -16% Mets
6Nolan Gorman homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
6Juan Soto walks. Jared Young scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.4–1
6Jared Young doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Brett Baty scores.3–1
5Bo Bichette singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Carson Benge scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.2–1
1Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to right fielder Brett Baty. JJ Wetherholt scores.1–1
1Bo Bichette grounds out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to first baseman Alec Burleson. Francisco Lindor scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






