Last play · Masyn Winn grounds out, third baseman Junior Caminero to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
TB 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
final
TB 6 – 4 STL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference
-122 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Walker homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Masyn Winn scores. Thomas Saggese scores. (inning 4) — +21% Cardinals
9Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to pitcher Chris Roycroft. Ben Williamson scores. Carson Williams to 3rd. Nick Fortes to 2nd.11–7
9Carson Williams hits a sacrifice bunt. Jonny DeLuca scores. Ben Williamson to 2nd. Carson Williams to 1st.10–7
8Pedro Pagés homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Jordan Walker scores.9–7
8Nolan Gorman homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.9–5
8Cedric Mullins out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Yandy Díaz scores.9–4
8Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Carson Williams scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.8–4
8Yandy Díaz singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Ben Williamson scores. Carson Williams to 3rd.7–4
4Jordan Walker homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Masyn Winn scores. Thomas Saggese scores.6–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
TB11–
STL7