Reds at Rangers
Last play · Evan Carter strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
CIN 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 0 TEX
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Matt McLain scores. (inning 1) — -12% Reds
1Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–0
1Elly De La Cruz singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Matt McLain scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.






