Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Trent Grisham strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Yankees0%
BOS 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Nick Sogard scores. (inning 7) — -41% Red Sox
9Alex Bregman doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Trevor Story scores.3–1
7Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Nick Sogard scores.2–1
2Anthony Volpe homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








