Tigers at Guardians
Last play · CJ Kayfus flies out to shortstop Javier Báez.
Win probability
Guardians0%
DET 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 1 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-165 / +140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach McKinstry out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Jhonkensy Noel to second baseman Brayan Rocchio. Riley Greene scores. Wenceel Pérez to 2nd. (inning 7) — -19% Tigers
7Zach McKinstry out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Jhonkensy Noel to second baseman Brayan Rocchio. Riley Greene scores. Wenceel Pérez to 2nd.2–1
4Guardians challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Gabriel Arias singles on a ground ball to pitcher Tarik Skubal. Angel Martínez scores. José Ramírez to 3rd.1–1
1Spencer Torkelson singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Kerry Carpenter scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








