Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela flies out to right fielder Aaron Judge.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BOS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Wells singles on a line drive to right fielder Nate Eaton. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. (inning 8) — +29% Yankees
8Austin Wells singles on a line drive to right fielder Nate Eaton. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–4
6Trevor Story homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
5Aaron Judge singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Trent Grisham scores.2–3
3Trevor Story singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Jarren Duran scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Nick Sogard to 2nd.2–2
1Ben Rice homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Cody Bellinger scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








