Padres at Cubs
Last play · Seiya Suzuki grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez. Kyle Tucker out at 2nd. Seiya Suzuki out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs0%
SD 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 0 CHC
Padres led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 5) — -21% Padres
5Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–0
1Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








