Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Anthony Volpe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYY 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Kirk homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — +15% Blue Jays
8Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Andrés Giménez scores.1–10
8Ernie Clement out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Myles Straw scores.1–9
8Andrés Giménez doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Daulton Varsho scores. Myles Straw to 3rd.1–8
8Alejandro Kirk homers (2) on a line drive to left field.1–7
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.1–6
7Nathan Lukes doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Andrés Giménez scores. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.1–5
7Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Daulton Varsho scores. Myles Straw to 2nd.1–3
6Cody Bellinger walks. Anthony Volpe scores. Austin Wells to 3rd. Trent Grisham to 2nd.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








