Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Giancarlo Stanton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
NYY 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 12 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ernie Clement homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Daulton Varsho scores. (inning 2) — +20% Blue Jays
7Giancarlo Stanton singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Myles Straw. Aaron Judge scores. Ben Rice scores.7–13
7Ben Rice doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd.5–13
7Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Myles Straw. Paul Goldschmidt scores.4–13
7Aaron Judge singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Ryan McMahon scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd. Trent Grisham to 2nd.3–13
6Daulton Varsho homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.2–13
6Cody Bellinger homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Aaron Judge scores.2–12
5George Springer homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–12
4Daulton Varsho homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Alejandro Kirk scores.0–11
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








