Tigers at Mariners
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Mariners0%
DET 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 1 SEA
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
5.5
opened 6.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Parker Meadows scores. (inning 5) — -31% Tigers
11Zach McKinstry singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Spencer Torkelson scores.3–2
6Julio Rodríguez singles on a line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.2–2
5Kerry Carpenter homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Parker Meadows scores.2–1
4Julio Rodríguez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








