Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Christian Yelich grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nico Hoerner scores. Kyle Tucker scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. (inning 1) — +17% Cubs
7Jake Bauers homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
4Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Sal Frelick scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.2–4
1Dansby Swanson walks.1–4
1Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nico Hoerner scores. Kyle Tucker scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.1–3
1Michael Busch homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Sal Frelick out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ian Happ. Christian Yelich scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








