Cubs at Brewers
CHC3–
MIL9Last play · Moisés Ballesteros grounds out to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CHC 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 9 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 1) — +14% Brewers
8Nico Hoerner homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–9
6Ian Happ homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–9
2Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to third baseman Matt Shaw. Andrew Vaughn scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.1–9
2Caleb Durbin singles on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.1–8
1Jackson Chourio singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Sal Frelick scores. Blake Perkins scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.1–6
1Blake Perkins singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Andrew Vaughn scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd.1–4
1Sal Frelick reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Nico Hoerner. William Contreras scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.1–3
1William Contreras doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brice Turang scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.