Mariners at Blue Jays
Last play · George Springer grounds into a double play, third baseman Eugenio Suárez to second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Miles Mastrobuoni. Davis Schneider out at 2nd. George Springer out at 1st.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
SEA 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 6 – 3 TOR
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Polanco homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores. (inning 5) — -36% Mariners
7J.P. Crawford out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Eugenio Suárez scores.10–3
7Josh Naylor homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jorge Polanco scores.9–3
6J.P. Crawford singles on a fly ball to left fielder Davis Schneider. Leo Rivas scores.7–3
5Jorge Polanco homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores.6–3
2Nathan Lukes singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.3–3
1Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Nathan Lukes scores.3–2
1Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to first baseman Josh Naylor. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Josh Naylor.3–1
1Julio Rodríguez homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








