Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Victor Robles grounds out to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TOR 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 8 – 2 SEA
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daulton Varsho doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk scores. (inning 3) — -35% Blue Jays
9Addison Barger homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.13–4
8Cal Raleigh homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.12–4
8Randy Arozarena homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.12–3
6Alejandro Kirk homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.12–2
6Nathan Lukes grounds out softly to first baseman Josh Naylor. Andrés Giménez scores. George Springer to 2nd.9–2
5Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Anthony Santander scores. Alejandro Kirk out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Victor Robles to first baseman Josh Naylor to third baseman Eugenio Suárez.8–2
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.7–2
4George Springer homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








