Mariners at Blue Jays
Last play · Alejandro Kirk flies out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
SEA 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 1 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — -17% Mariners
8Jorge Polanco singles on a ground ball to right fielder Myles Straw. Randy Arozarena scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.3–1
6Jorge Polanco singles on a line drive to left fielder Anthony Santander. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–1
6Cal Raleigh homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1George Springer homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








