Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Joey Loperfido grounds out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TOR 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 1 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez hits a grand slam (3) to right field. Jorge Polanco scores. Josh Naylor scores. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 8) — +39% Mariners
8Eugenio Suárez hits a grand slam (3) to right field. Jorge Polanco scores. Josh Naylor scores. Randy Arozarena scores.2–6
8Cal Raleigh homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
6Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Alejandro Kirk scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.2–1
5George Springer doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Addison Barger scores.1–1
2Eugenio Suárez homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








