Mariners at Blue Jays
Last play · Dominic Canzone pops out to third baseman Ernie Clement.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SEA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 5 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Addison Barger singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd. (inning 2) — +10% Blue Jays
7Daulton Varsho strikes out swinging.2–6
6Eugenio Suárez singles on a line drive to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Randy Arozarena scores.2–5
6Josh Naylor homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (6) on a line drive to left field.0–5
3Addison Barger homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Ernie Clement scores.0–4
2Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a ground ball to shortstop J.P. Crawford, deflected by third baseman Eugenio Suárez. Ernie Clement scores. Addison Barger to 2nd.0–2
2Addison Barger singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








