Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Dominic Canzone called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TOR 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 5 – 1 SEA
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. (inning 3) — -23% Blue Jays
8Andrés Giménez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez, deflected by pitcher Emerson Hancock. Ernie Clement scores. Myles Straw scores.8–2
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.6–2
6Eugenio Suárez singles on a line drive to right fielder Addison Barger. Jorge Polanco scores. Josh Naylor out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Addison Barger to third baseman Ernie Clement.5–2
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr. flies out to right fielder Dominic Canzone.5–1
4George Springer doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.4–1
3Daulton Varsho walks. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.3–1
3Andrés Giménez homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.2–1
2Josh Naylor homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








