Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Ty France called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 1 TB
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Myles Straw. Carson Williams scores. (inning 7) — +22% Rays
7Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Myles Straw. Carson Williams scores.1–2
4Alejandro Kirk out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Davis Schneider scores.1–1
1Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Addison Barger. Chandler Simpson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








