Mariners at Royals
Last play · J.P. Crawford grounds out, third baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
SEA 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adam Frazier homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Massey scores. (inning 8) — +61% Royals
9Dominic Canzone grounds into a double play, second baseman Adam Frazier to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Eugenio Suárez scores. Josh Naylor out at 2nd. Dominic Canzone out at 1st.5–7
8Bobby Witt Jr. doubles (42) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd. Bobby Witt Jr. advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by left fielder Randy Arozarena.4–7
8Carter Jensen singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Jac Caglianone scores.4–6
8Adam Frazier homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Massey scores.4–5
8J.P. Crawford homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
7Mitch Garver out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Eugenio Suárez scores.3–3
2Eugenio Suárez homers (46) on a fly ball to center field. Jorge Polanco scores.2–3
1Salvador Perez homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








