Padres at Mets
Last play · Juan Soto lines out sharply, pitcher Robert Suarez to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Mets0%
SD 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 3 NYM
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado hits a grand slam (26) to left center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 5) — -44% Padres
9Ramón Laureano homers (24) on a line drive to left field.7–4
7Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Francisco Alvarez homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.6–4
5Juan Soto homers (41) on a line drive to right field.6–3
5Manny Machado hits a grand slam (26) to left center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez scores.6–2
4Starling Marte homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
2Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Jackson Merrill scores.2–1
1Pete Alonso homers (36) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Gavin Sheets out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








