Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Oneil Cruz flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Nico Hoerner scores. (inning 1) — -28% Cubs
8Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ to 2nd.8–4
6Justin Turner singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Yorke. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.7–4
6Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to center fielder Alexander Canario. Matt Shaw scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.6–4
6Michael Busch out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Yorke. Dansby Swanson scores.5–4
2Andrew McCutchen walks. Cam Devanney scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.4–4
1Joey Bart homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Tommy Pham scores. Andrew McCutchen scores.4–3
1Moisés Ballesteros homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.4–0
1Ian Happ homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Nico Hoerner scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








