Braves at Nationals
Last play · CJ Abrams grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 2nd. (inning 6) — -31% Braves
9Brady House singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Dylan Crews scores. Robert Hassell III to 2nd.9–4
9Ha-Seong Kim singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin scores.9–3
9Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd. Drake Baldwin to 2nd.7–3
8Marcell Ozuna doubles (19) on a fly ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Ha-Seong Kim scores.6–3
7Matt Olson homers (28) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
6Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nationals challenged (timing play), call on the field was upheld: Nacho Alvarez Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Marcell Ozuna out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Daylen Lile to shortstop CJ Abrams.4–3
6Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 2nd.3–3
6Drake Baldwin doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








