Yankees at Twins
Last play · Trevor Larnach strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins0%
NYY 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 7 – 5 MIN
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham homers (33) on a fly ball to right field. Jasson Domínguez scores. José Caballero scores. (inning 4) — -29% Yankees
9Cody Bellinger homers (29) on a fly ball to right field. Aaron Judge scores.10–5
8Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jasson Domínguez scores.8–5
5Brooks Lee singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by shortstop José Caballero. Trevor Larnach scores. Luke Keaschall scores. James Outman to 2nd.7–5
5Luke Keaschall singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.7–3
4Cody Bellinger strikes out swinging.7–2
4Trent Grisham homers (33) on a fly ball to right field. Jasson Domínguez scores. José Caballero scores.6–2
4Jasson Domínguez doubles (18) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Paul Goldschmidt scores.3–2
3Trent Grisham homers (32) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








