Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Jordan Walker called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CIN 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 1 STL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Stewart scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 4) — -38% Reds
7Spencer Steer singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Austin Hays scores. Santiago Espinal scores.6–2
6Iván Herrera reaches on a fielder's choice. Lars Nootbaar scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Elly De La Cruz.4–2
5Elly De La Cruz grounds out, second baseman Nolan Gorman to first baseman Alec Burleson.4–1
4Spencer Steer homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Stewart scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.3–1
1Alec Burleson homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








