Cubs at Reds
Last play · Ian Happ called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds100%
CHC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Will Benson doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Austin Hays scores. (inning 4) — +13% Reds
4Will Benson doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Austin Hays scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








