Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Jeremiah Jackson grounds out, pitcher Paul Blackburn to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 0 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-210 / +175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 1) — -21% Yankees
7Giancarlo Stanton doubles (7) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Cody Bellinger scores.7–0
7Aaron Judge out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Austin Wells scores.5–0
7Paul Goldschmidt singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jeremiah Jackson. José Caballero scores. Austin Wells to 3rd.4–0
5Austin Wells singles on a line drive to right fielder Jeremiah Jackson. Anthony Volpe scores. José Caballero to 2nd.3–0
1Amed Rosario doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Cody Bellinger scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








