Padres at Mets
Last play · Ramón Laureano pops out to third baseman Brett Baty.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 5 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 3) — +22% Mets
7Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Francisco Lindor scores.1–6
3Brandon Nimmo homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso scores.1–5
3Juan Soto grounds out, second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Cedric Mullins scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.1–2
3Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.1–1
1Pete Alonso homers (37) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








