Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
NYY 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Slater scores. (inning 7) — -19% Yankees
7Gunnar Henderson doubles (33) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Slater. Jordan Westburg scores.2–4
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Slater scores.2–3
6Samuel Basallo grounds into a force out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop Anthony Volpe. Gunnar Henderson scores. Dylan Beavers to 3rd. Jeremiah Jackson out at 2nd. Samuel Basallo to 1st.0–3
6Ryan Mountcastle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Aaron Judge. Jordan Westburg scores.0–2
2Ryan Mountcastle homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








